BREAK-EVEN POINT ANALYSIS IN PRODUCTION CAPACITY PLANNING OF COLD PAVING HOT MIX ASBUTON AT THE FABRICATION UNIT OF PT ASPHALT KARYA NUSANTARA USING AN AGGREGATE PLANNING APPROACH

Abstract

PT Asphalt Karya Nusantara is a company that produces Cold Paving Hot Mix Asbuton (CPHMA) for road maintenance and repair needs. Fluctuating demand requires the company to conduct proper production capacity planning to control costs and achieve production targets. This study aims to determine the optimal production planning strategy using the Aggregate Planning approach, determine the Break-Even Point (BEP) value, and analyze the relationship between both in identifying the most profitable production strategy. The study uses actual data from January 2024 to December 2025, covering production, sales, inventory, fixed cost, and variable cost data. Demand forecasting compared the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Moving Average methods, while production strategies were evaluated using Level Strategy and Chase Strategy. BEP analysis was calculated in units, monetary value (IDR), and time. The SES method with α = 0.3 was selected as the best forecasting model (MAD = 4,053; MSE = 39,121,111; MAPE = 449%), projecting an average demand of 1,411 sacks/month for 2026. In 2024, BEP was achieved at 22,310 sacks with break-even revenue of IDR 1,115,526,206 and a payback period of 3 months 10 days, generating a profit of IDR 327,066,069. In 2025, BEP rose to 30,847 sacks while production was only 22,744 sacks, resulting in a loss of IDR 10,754,124. Level Strategy was selected as the optimal strategy with total availability of 57,332 sacks, surpassing BEP by a surplus of 26,485 sacks. The integration of BEP and Aggregate Planning produces a comprehensive and measurable production decision-making framework. The company is advised to implement Level Strategy in 2026 with monthly actual demand deviation monitoring, and to develop market diversification to reduce dependence on government projects.